Saturday, January 07, 2006


Most investors are at least some what concerned about the bulk of the baby boomers retiring and selling off their stock, but there is one industry that is sure to benefit from the baby boomers retiring, nursing homes. My personal favorite is Extendicare Inc (EXE 15).

Extendicare Inc (I'll refer to it by its symbol: EXE) and the industry in general have several benefits (1) because of the experience and initial investment needed to start a nursing home there will likely be only a handful of new competitors over the next few years (2) there are only about a dozen major U.S companies involved in this industry, at first glance that may seem like a crowded field but when you consider that most of these companies stay within their "territory" and there are tens of thousands of customers for every company it doesn't look so tight after all.
With an enterprise value of 1.71B EXE is one of the biggest providers of long term care in the country (EXE also has major operations in Canada). The company also provides in home services to individuals who are not ready to move into a nursing home but do need some kind of outside care. That gives the company a strategic advantage over its competitors since it will start feeling the impact of baby boomers retiring about five years before its competitors, this will also give the company an advantage when those customers who recieve in home assistance are ready to move into a nursing home.
Even if you don't think about the industry this is still a great stock to own! The management is growth oriented, despite its 18% rise this year the stock is still cheap trading at just nine times trailing earnings, the stock throws off a small 1% dividend, the insiders own 6% of the company, and that's not to mention the occasional stock buy back. This company has the cash model of a utility with the growth plan of a major corporation. I suspect the price of this stock will advance by about 20% every year and than rise significantly about 5 years after the bulk of the baby boomers start to retire. Anyone who likes the low risk high reward combination (and who doesn't?) should consider buying shares of EXE.

disclosure: the author owns stock in EXE.

If you would like an analysis report on a specific company send me an email! numismatist18@yahoo.com

10 Comments:

At 1/07/2006 8:24 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree completly, another nursing home that you might want to check out is ACR, it is a little pricey right now but I think it will fair well in the long term.

 
At 1/09/2006 8:22 AM, Blogger Otter said...

But aren't Baby Boomers a good 20 years from really entering retirement homes?

 
At 1/10/2006 4:01 PM, Blogger Bass Kid said...

Yes, baby boomers are twenty years away from moving into nursing homes but investors will probaly realize the potential for growth in this industry long before then. The effect on the stock price should come long before the bulk of the baby boomers move into nursing homes.

 
At 1/14/2006 7:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Otter, the Baby Boomers THINK they are 20 years from needing a nursing home. Until the stroke. Until Alzheimers. Until the emphasema starts.
Not many of them will enter nursing homes in their 60's, but you must understand that a small percentage of a HUGE BULGE will instantly balloon the demand for nursing home beds. The Boomer leading edge is just now celebrating their 59th or 60th birthdays.

 
At 1/22/2006 10:44 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with Otter... The play right now is in the "Ponce de Leon" stocks. The nursing home stocks are still several years away!

 
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